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postheadericon India Forecasts Downgraded

Recent press surrounding the release of PricewaterhouseCoopers new Indian Entertainment and Media Outlook 2010 put a positive spin on the report numbers, citing the 12.4% compound growth forecast for the filmed entertainment industry which, if fulfilled, will take revenues to 170.5 billion rupees by 2014.

 Compared to a year ago, though, PricewaterhouseCoopers is somewhat less optimistic. A stand-off over terms between producers and exhibitors saw a three month hole punched in the country’s 2009 release schedule, and box office drop 14% to 70 billion rupees from 81.3 billion in 2008. Although this could be argued to be a one-off event with limited implications for future growth, PricewaterhouseCoopers has taken the opportunity to downgrade its previous forecasts.

 In 2009 the company was forecasting total film industry revenues for 2013 of 184.3 billion rupees, a figure now cut to 157 billion. Looking at domestic box office alone, the new forecast of 116 billion rupees in 2013 compares with a year-ago forecast of 132.3 billion.

 With India’s inflation rate running at around 10%, PricewaterhouseCoopers’ new forecasts suggest fairly modest growth in real terms. This seems an adjustment in the right direction. India’s film business has been over-hyped recently. Its exhibition sector is huge and well-established, serving between two and three billion patrons each year and appears in many respects a mature market. Clearly there is scope for modernisation and a gradual growth in revenues from higher ticket prices, but India is not starting from the low base which has been a characteristic of other fast-growing cinema markets.

 You can download the full PricewaterhouseCoopers report using the link below.


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